The UEFA Champions League 2025/26 begins this week with a full schedule of high-stakes fixtures, and the Opta supercomputer has released its detailed predictions for Matchday 1. With thousands of simulations run ahead of every game, fans now have a data-backed look at which European giants are most likely to start strong in the new 36-team league phase.
Premier League Clubs Lead Predictions
Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain lifted their first-ever Champions League crown last season after destroying Inter Milan 5-0 in the final. Many expect them to challenge again, but Opta’s model surprisingly does not rank them as outright favourites. Instead, Liverpool and Arsenal are tipped as stronger contenders, even though PSG knocked both clubs out of last year’s competition.
This season, six English teams will feature in Europe’s top tournament: Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur. Spurs qualified through their Europa League triumph, while Newcastle return for the first time in over two decades and will mark the occasion with a glamour tie against Barcelona at St James’ Park.
Real Madrid Under Xabi Alonso
Record holders Real Madrid, who have won the European Cup/Champions League 15 times, also begin a fresh chapter under Xabi Alonso. They host Marseille at the Santiago Bernabéu on Tuesday. The statistics favour Madrid heavily: they have lost just once in 26 previous home openers in the competition, and Opta’s simulations gave Alonso’s side a 67.1% chance of victory.
Key Matchday 1 Fixtures and Predictions
The opening round of fixtures delivers some heavyweight clashes, along with intriguing debut appearances. Here are some of the standout games from Matchday 1:
- Arsenal at Athletic Club (San Mamés): The Gunners’ first-ever competitive meeting with Athletic. Arsenal were backed to win in 45.3% of simulations, while Athletic triumphed in 28.2%. The Basque side are strong at home, winning six of their seven European matches at San Mamés since 2022.
- Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid (Anfield): Jürgen Klopp’s men begin against Diego Simeone’s side, with the Reds winning in 56.9% of simulations. Atlético managed just one win in their last eight Champions League games against English opposition.
- Bayern Munich vs Chelsea (Allianz Arena): A repeat of the 2012 Champions League final, even taking place in the same Munich stadium. Bayern have the highest win percentage in group/league phase history (73%) and were given a 55.6% chance of victory, compared to Chelsea’s 22.6%.
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Villarreal: Spurs return to the Champions League after winning the Europa League and are tipped at 50.0% to win. Villarreal’s record against English teams is dreadful, with no wins in 14 attempts.
- Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund: A rematch of the 1997 final. Juve have never lost their opening European Cup/Champions League home fixture, and Opta simulations favoured them with a 46.5% chance to win, compared to Dortmund’s 28.1%.
- Newcastle United vs Barcelona (St James’ Park): The Magpies famously beat Barça 3-2 in 1997 but lost their next three meetings. The supercomputer gives Newcastle a 32.8% chance of victory, with Barcelona favoured at 42.6%.
- Manchester City vs Napoli (Etihad Stadium): Pep Guardiola begins his 17th Champions League campaign, drawing level with José Mourinho. City were backed to win in 54.9% of simulations, while Antonio Conte’s Napoli won 22%.
- Benfica vs Qarabag: A historic clash, the first ever between a Portuguese and Azerbaijani side in Champions League history. Benfica were overwhelming favourites at 73.9%, while Qarabag managed only 10.2% in simulations.
Newcomers Enter the Spotlight
Several clubs will make their Champions League debut this season. Union Saint-Gilloise of Belgium face PSV in Eindhoven, Bodø/Glimt travel to Slavia Prague, Pafos head to Greece to meet Olympiakos, and Kairat Almaty from Kazakhstan visit Sporting CP in Lisbon.
The model gives these debutants a tough start: Sporting are the heaviest favourites of Matchday 1 with an 80.9% chance of victory against Kairat. Similarly, PSV are tipped at 51.1% to beat Union SG.
PSG Begin Title Defence
Holders Paris Saint-Germain begin their defence on Wednesday against Atalanta in Paris. The French champions were backed in 62.1% of simulations, with only 17.8% predicting defeat. Only once in the last 30 seasons has a defending champion lost their opening game — Liverpool’s 2-0 defeat to Napoli in 2019.
A Season of Intrigue Ahead
From European heavyweights like Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona to debutants hoping to make history, the new-look Champions League promises drama from the very first whistle. While the Opta supercomputer provides clear favourites, football fans know that numbers cannot capture the unpredictability that defines this competition.
The stage is set for a thrilling Matchday 1, spread across Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday — and with every game mattering in the new 36-team league phase, the road to the 2026 final is already filled with intrigue.
